Additional Coverage:
- Tropical Storm Polo to rapidly intensify, fuel Southwest flood threat amid hyperactive Pacific tropics (foxweather.com)
Tropical Storm Polo is rapidly intensifying off the southwestern coast of Mexico and is expected to become a major hurricane by midweek. While Polo itself is not forecast to make landfall in the United States, its moisture is set to fuel a significant flood threat across the U.S. Southwest beginning Tuesday, particularly in New Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking four active tropical systems in the Pacific, including Polo. This surge in activity is linked to a strengthening El Niño event, which has energized the Central and Eastern Pacific basins, generating 18 named storms so far this season.
As of late Sunday, Polo was located approximately 200 miles southwest of Mexico’s coast, moving northeast at 5 mph with sustained winds near 65 mph. Forecasters predict Polo will intensify quickly into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane by Wednesday as it parallels the Mexican coastline.
Although it is likely to remain offshore, Polo poses a serious risk to coastal areas in Mexico, with hurricane-force winds, storm surge, and heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous mudslides. A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect from Tecpan De Galeana to Punta San Telmo.
Meanwhile, the moisture from Polo is expected to enhance monsoon thunderstorms over New Mexico starting Tuesday, raising concerns for widespread heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding. The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a Level 3 flash flood threat-on a scale of 4-for southern parts of the state, including Las Cruces. This threat will expand to northern and eastern areas like Roswell and Albuquerque by Wednesday.
In addition to Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys is active in the Pacific, located more than 1,000 miles southwest of Baja California. Odalys, with sustained winds of 45 mph, is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by midweek and potentially turn back toward Mexico later in the week. Some forecast models suggest Polo and Odalys could interact, potentially increasing moisture flow into the Southwest and complicating storm tracks.
Hawaii, a region that seldom experiences tropical storms, could see additional impacts as well. The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, currently east-southeast of the islands, are moving toward Hawaii and may redevelop.
Even without full redevelopment, heavy rains are expected to begin Wednesday, especially over the Big Island, which was recently hit hard by Hurricane Lala. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches and wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible through the weekend.
The NHC is also monitoring another area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with medium chances of tropical development in the coming week.
Residents in affected areas are urged to stay informed and prepare for potential flooding and hazardous weather conditions as these tropical systems evolve. Further updates will be provided as the situation develops.