I have forecasted the weather for 31 years, and I have only seen a few key moments when the weather appears to be lining up for a devastating event. This is one of them. The remnant moisture core of Polo is holding in its same trajectory from last week and will deposit significant moisture for heavy rain directly over the Borderland.
Here is my worry: the cumulative rain total from the event. Let’s say we have 10 waves of t-showers between now and Wednesday at 6 AM. Let’s say each wave brings 0.5 inches. That would be 5 inches of rain in 36 hours, dumped on already saturated ground. (What I have described is the worst-case scenario so that we can plan.) Here is your exclusive 9-Hour Forecast for Tuesday.
KTSM has issued a Weather Authority Alert through early Wednesday morning due to the threat of significant rainfall and possible flooding due to the remnants of Hurricane Polo. Tonight: Expect overcast skies with periodic t-showers coming and going in waves. Each individual wave of storms could produce heavy rain, up to an inch per cell. We will also have moments of calm with cloudy skies and patchy fog. The variable winds will range from 5-20 mph, and the low will drop to 64. A Flash Flood Watch is posted.
FORECAST: Tuesday will be a potentially devastating weather day. We face two significant problems that elevate the chance of flooding. The moisture core of Polo will pass directly over the Borderland. Secondly, a powerful low-pressure system moves in right after the arrival of the moisture plume. Expect periodic t-showers on and off all day long. Heavy rain is likely out of some storms. The heaviest rainfall is likely to be the latter part of Tuesday evening and night. A cumulative 2 to 6 inches of rain will be possible in a worst-case scenario. Gusty winds from the SW will range from 15-35 mph. Tuesday’s high: 70. This is a serious threat to the Borderland; therefore, all precautions should be taken now to prepare for heavy rain in flood-prone areas. By 6 AM Wednesday, we should see the rain stop and rapid clearing with sunny skies and gusty winds. Wednesday’s high will be 78, and the west winds will gust near 40 mph. Thursday will be mostly sunny and 80. The first cool front of the season blows in on Friday. East winds will range from 10-30 mph with stronger gusts on the west side. Friday will be partly cloudy with a high of 70. Saturday will be mostly sunny with a few clouds and 79…