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Mike Collins, a Senate candidate supported by former President Donald Trump, faced criticism after claiming that gas prices would drop sharply right after the midterm elections. On camera, Collins told a voter that prices would fall “fast” on November 5, attributing the current high prices to political factors. However, market experts and prediction traders suggest a different outlook.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. have been climbing, with crude oil recently surpassing $100 per barrel. According to data from AAA, the national average price for gasoline peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21.
Meanwhile, traders on prediction platform Kalshi indicate a strong possibility that prices will continue to rise. Currently, there is a 71% chance that average gas prices will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026, a 57% chance they will surpass $4.80, and over a 40% chance of topping $5.00.
The highest recorded U.S. gas price was just above $5.00 per gallon in June 2022.
Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran have further unsettled global oil markets. Concerns over the Strait of Hormuz-a critical oil transit route-have pushed West Texas Intermediate crude futures up by 3.5% to over $103 per barrel. Kalshi traders assign a 50% probability that gas prices will be above $4.25 on Election Day, November 3.
In response to soaring fuel costs, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at providing relief to farmers and truckers, who have been particularly affected by high diesel prices. The order directs the Treasury Secretary to defer certain federal diesel tax payments until December 31 and, where legally possible, waive related penalties. However, this relief is not automatic; the Treasury Department must issue guidelines outlining eligibility and payment terms, with a deadline set for this Saturday to clarify its authority.
It’s important to note that the executive order applies only to diesel fuel taxes, excluding the federal gas tax and conventional gasoline costs. Additionally, state gasoline taxes remain unaffected, though the White House encourages states to consider similar assistance measures. Whether any tax deferrals translate to lower prices at the pump will depend on how fuel suppliers pass on these savings.