Hurricane Simon – a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 90 mph – is sitting nearly stationary in the eastern Pacific Ocean, less than 100 miles west of the Mexican state of Jalisco. The storm is expected to stay stationary for the next 48 hours before finally pushing north by the end of the week.
While Simon does not pose a direct threat to Texas, atmospheric moisture from the storm is already being pulled northward by a system of low air pressure in the western United States. This weather system will carry Simon’s Pacific moisture into Texas, bringing the potential for flooding rain and severe storms to parts of the state. Here’s what you should know.
Severe storms coming Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across West Texas and the Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening. About a 50% to 60% chance of rain is expected in Midland-Odessa, while areas farther north and east – such as Lubbock and Childress – will have about an 80% chance of rain.
Some storms could be severe, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The Permian Basin is under a level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms, while a higher level 2 risk of severe storms has been issued for the eastern Texas Panhandle. An isolated tornado is also possible in the Panhandle, although the overall tornado risk is low.
More rainfall incoming
Subsequent rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible over the next few days. First, rain is possible across West Texas overnight and into Wednesday morning. Then, as Simon continues to sit just offshore of Mexico, more storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
On Thursday, a cold front is likely to push through West Texas, which will interact with the tropical moisture and produce more rainfall across the region. A level 2 of 4 risk of flash flooding has been issued across a large part of this region, including Midland, Odessa, Lubbock, Abilene, Fort Stockton and Big Bend National Park.
According to the National Blend of Models, about 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible across this region by the end of the week, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches or more possible.
Any rain for San Antonio?
As moisture continues to increase out of the Gulf of Mexico, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across South-Central Texas through the middle of the week. However, rainfall will stay isolated to scattered, meaning that many across the region will stay dry…