The WPC said a southward-moving cold front would interact with deep moisture over the Southern Plains, concentrating heavy rainfall across West Texas into early October 16.
Its Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, issued at 06:44 UTC on October 15, placed portions of West Texas under a Moderate Risk, the second-highest of WPC’s four excessive-rainfall categories.
Farther north, rainfall had already produced flooding before the main West Texas risk period began. NWS Lubbock reported that totals over the preceding 24 hours had exceeded 127 mm (5 inches) in spots across portions of the Rolling Plains and southern Texas Panhandle, with another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday morning. The agency said additional flooding or continuation of flooding already underway was possible.
Flash flooding was directly observed in the Lubbock area early October 15. At 06:07 CDT (11:07 UTC), NWS Lubbock issued a Flash Flood Warning for central Lubbock County and northwestern Crosby County after members of the public reported flooding…