ILLINOIS — Forecast models are starting to show a possible severe weather setup across the middle of the country in early November. That could include northern and central Illinois, with an all-hazard risk of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The timing being watched is around Monday night into Tuesday, November 2 to 3. It is still more than a week out, so the details may change.
Strong Low Develops Over the Upper Midwest
The European AI model shows a strong area of low pressure near Iowa and southern Minnesota early on Tuesday, November 3. Pressure near the center of the storm drops to about 992 millibars. That is a strong system for early November.
Tightly packed lines around the low point to strong winds across the region. A cold front trailing from the storm stretches south through the Plains. Storms could form along that front as it moves east into Illinois.
Humid Gulf Air Surges North
Ahead of the storm, the model shows warm, humid air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints in the 60s reach well into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. St. Louis is shown near 66, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s near Chicago and Detroit.
Dewpoints that high are unusual for November in the Midwest. Moist air like this gives storms more fuel. When it meets a strong storm system, severe weather becomes more likely.
Sharp Contrast With Dry Air Out West
The model shows a sharp difference between the humid East and the dry West. Dewpoints in the teens and 20s cover much of the Rockies and Southwest, including Denver, Salt Lake City, and Phoenix. Behind the cold front, much drier air pushes into the Plains…