TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) – With just days until Election Day, Arizona pollster Paul Bentz joined Tucson Now’s Makayla Goos to break down shifting voter trends in Southern Arizona’s critical congressional matchup between Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani and Democratic challenger Joanna Mendoza.
While statewide midterm participation is tracking at a typical 60%, early ballot returns point to notable Democratic enthusiasm, fueled largely by unaffiliated voters swinging away from the party in power.
According to polling data from High Ground Public Affairs, independent voters are breaking toward Democrats by margins as wide as two-to-one or three-to-one. Bentz explained that persistent concerns over grocery prices, fuel costs, and international conflicts are driving buyer’s remorse among independents who backed Republicans in 2024, leaving GOP candidates like Ciscomani working to distance themselves from national figures and prove they are not a “rubber stamp.”…