If you pulled the “textbook” El Niño play out of the weather playbook, you would get exactly what we have seen so far from the 2026 super El Niño. The atmospheric behavior has been about as typical as possible since El Niño conditions were declared in June.
THE TROPICS
The first textbook signal came from the tropics. A typical El Niño would limit tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin and there have only been 10 named systems so far in 2026 with just one hurricane. It’s the quietest season since 2014, when there were only nine tropical cyclones. This season has also had the second-lowest accumulated cyclone energy in the satellite era…