As California prepares for a historically wet El Niño winter, a new study from the University of California, Davis warns that critical transportation corridors and coastal towns along the Central Coast face elevated risks of severe flooding, sea-level surges, and road failures.
The report, titled Coastal Flooding Risks for California, authored by Dr. Fraser Shilling, Director of the UC Davis Road Ecology Center, highlights high-vulnerability points across the state—specifically identifying key low-lying coastal stretches in Monterey and Santa Cruz counties as primary areas of concern.
Among the specific locations singled out in the UC Davis analysis are two major Central Coast focal points:
-
Moss Landing and Highway 1 (Monterey County): The critical Highway 1 corridor traversing Moss Landing sits directly in the crosshairs of projected coastal inundation. Severe storm surges combined with El Niño-driven tides threaten to overtop low-lying highway segments, endangering regional travel and transport routes between Santa Cruz and Monterey.
-
Santa Cruz Beachfront Areas (Santa Cruz County): Santa Cruz’s low-lying beachfront areas face heightened flood vulnerability during compound high-tide and winter storm events, putting waterfront commercial districts and access roads at elevated risk of structural stress and localized ocean flooding.
“We face the risk—though not the certainty—of catastrophic flooding in a variety of coastal towns this winter,” said Shilling. “It’s important to be informed of risk so you can make decisions.”
The warnings follow recent coastal events in Southern California, where an El Niño-induced Kelvin wave combined with high tides to produce an additional 2 to 3 feet of sea-level rise, extensively damaging shoreline property.
According to the study, a similar temporary surge along Northern and Central California during peak winter storms could severely test coastal defenses and highway embankments that have seen limited structural upgrades over the past decade.
For Central Coast commuters and freight traffic, highway closures represent both economic disruption and safety challenges…