MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — The cold and snow expected late this week will be little more than a brief taste of winter for much of the country. A new 8–14 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-average temperatures across most of the United States from November 16 through November 22, 2026. The highest odds of unusual warmth are centered on the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Only parts of the West are expected to run near or below normal during that stretch.
Cold Snap Will Not Stick Around
A burst of cold air and possible snow is expected to move through parts of the Midwest and Northeast late this week into the weekend. Wind chills could fall into the teens and 20s in some areas, giving many communities their coldest feel of the season so far. However, forecasters say this chilly pattern is not built to last. A familiar warmer pattern is expected to return as the calendar moves past the halfway point of November.
That means anyone hoping for an early start to winter may need to wait. Snow that falls late this week could melt quickly as milder air returns. Heating bills may also get a short break once the cold air retreats. The quick turnaround is a reminder of how fast fall weather can swing.
Upper Midwest Shows Strongest Warm Signal
The strongest warm signal in the outlook sits over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Odds of above-normal temperatures reach 80 to 90 percent across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and parts of the Dakotas. Northern Illinois, including the Chicago area, also falls within or near that highest-probability zone. Cities like Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Des Moines are among those favored for a mild stretch.
Odds of 70 to 80 percent stretch farther out across the Ohio Valley, Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley. That includes much of Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kansas, and Nebraska. Such high probabilities are notable for an outlook more than a week out. It suggests strong agreement that warmer air will dominate the middle of the country.
South and East Also Leaning Warm
The warmth is expected to extend well beyond the Midwest. Much of the South, including Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee, is favored to run above normal. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are also shaded in likely above-normal colors. That covers major cities such as New York, Philadelphia, Boston, and Washington, D.C.…