Southern California renters should brace for higher bills no matter where they live, but nowhere will the climb be steeper than the Inland Empire, according to a forecast the University of Southern California released Tuesday. Riverside and San Bernardino counties, treated together as a single Inland Empire market in the forecast, are projected to see average annual rent growth of 2.4% over the next three years — the fastest pace among five Southern California markets studied.
The Inland Empire’s average rent stood at $2,150 in June, the lowest of the markets USC examined, and is projected to climb to $2,309 by June 2029, according to MyNewsLA.com. The region’s vacancy rate was 6.47% in June and is forecast to fall to 5.83%, a tightening that typically puts upward pressure on rents. USC’s Casden Real Estate Economics forecast does not break out separate figures for Riverside and San Bernardino counties individually, the outlet notes.
Construction has played a real role in keeping that growth in check so far. The Inland Empire added 12,300 rental units over the past three years, expanding its apartment stock by about 7% — the fastest supply growth among the five markets — with Class A apartments making up 32% of that new supply and most of the rest landing in the midrange Class B category. That building helped moderate rent growth to nearly 1%, per the same report. But the pipeline is drying up: construction starts in the Inland Empire have fallen 60% from their 2024 peak, a trend that could remove the brake on future rent increases.
San Diego County’s Building Boom Buys Some Breathing Room
San Diego County offers a parallel case study in how new supply can blunt rent pressure, at least temporarily. The county’s average rent was $2,592 in June and is forecast to reach $2,707 by June 2029, a projected annual growth rate of 1.5%, according to KPBS Public Media. San Diego has added roughly 16,000 apartments since late 2023 — about twice the new supply Orange County added over the same stretch — and the forecast credits increased density and the county’s Complete Communities initiative with helping it keep pace with housing demand…