MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WBTW) — Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles does not have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not well organized, according to the National Hurricane Center.
However, these observations also suggest the possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming hurricane hunter flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 knots. The initial motion is fast, to the west at 26 mph.
A midlevel ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the PTC 5 for the next 24 to 36 hours. It should more or less maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a midlatitude trough moving eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning northwestward and northward into the break.