Scientists have developed a new method that could accurately forecast an earthquake months before it occurs.
Developed by a University of Alaska Fairbanks scientist, the method looks into the identification of prior low-level tectonic unrest across large areas.
The study focuses on the precursory activity of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes and uses machine learning to predict any such event.
Led by research assistant professor Társilo Girona of the UAF Geophysical Institute, the study analyzed two major earth quakes in Alaska and California (the 2018 magnitude 7.1 Anchorage earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence of magnitudes 6.4 to 7.1.).
Scientists detected abnormal low-magnitude regional seismicity
Prior to each of the two studied earthquakes, they found that approximately three months of abnormal low-magnitude regional seismicity had occurred across about 15% to 25% of Southcentral Alaska and Southern California.
Their research finds that unrest preceding major earthquakes is mostly captured by seismic activity with a magnitude below 1.5.
The Anchorage earthquake occurred Nov. 30, 2018, at 8:29 a.m., with an epicenter located approximately 10.5 miles north of the city. It caused extensive damage to some roads and highways, and several buildings sustained damage, according to the study .