Tropical Storm Francine – soon to be Hurricane Francine – has been slowly gathering strength since it formed Monday in the Gulf of Mexico, with winds now estimated at 65 mph as of Tuesday morning. One question is: How strong will Francine get before it hits land?
“Significant strengthening” was forecast before Francine makes landfall Wednesday in Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said, with sustained winds of 100 mph possible near the storm center. This would make it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity.
Thanks in part to unusually warm seawater in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine could even undergo what meteorologists call “rapid intensification,” which occurs when a storm increases its wind speed by at least 35 mph within 24 hours.
Warm water vs. wind shear
However, while there’s plenty of warm water for intensification, strong winds aloft could prevent strengthening:
“The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system is likely to increase,” the hurricane center said in an online forecast released Tuesday morning. “The latter environmental influence will probably limit Francine’s strengthening.”