AUSTIN (KXAN) — The Climate Prediction Center updated its outlook for ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and La Niña is expected to begin by this November.
La Niña is the cold phase of ENSO, where the waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific cool at least 0.5° below average.
The odds of La Niña continuing through meteorological winter (December-February) are at 77%, but La Niña is not expected to last long into 2025.
The Climate Prediction Center described the outlook for this upcoming La Niña as “weak and short,” which would have implications for the upcoming winter forecast.
What a weak La Niña means for winter
La Niña usually provides a relatively predictable pattern for winters in North America, but the strength of La Niña impacts that predictability.
Remember, a typical La Niña means drier and warmer for most of the southern states, while being wetter and colder for many of the northern tier states as the Pacific Jet Stream is usually farther north (see image).
But, according to the CPC updated outlook, a weaker La Niña is “less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”