Will Smith has hardly been a bad hitter for the Dodgers during the past two seasons.
But, as his offensive production has declined at the plate, with the sixth-year catcher setting career lows for OPS in back-to-back campaigns, there’s been one common denominator to what he’s been missing.
From 2020 to 2022, Smith did much of his damage against four-seam fastballs, batting .292 against the pitch with a .588 slugging percentage, 21 home runs and only an 18.6% whiff rate.
In 2023 and 2024, however, those numbers have dipped across the board: Smith has only hit four-seamers at a .214 clip. He has slugged just .383 against them. And, as pitchers have started throwing him more heaters, his whiff rate has climbed to 23.9%.
Overall, he’s still an above-league-average hitter, posting a .246 batting average this year with 20 home runs, 74 RBIs and a .758 OPS.
But, the statistical regression has illustrated his struggles to hone in on his best swing — one the Dodgers are hoping has started to reappear in recent weeks.