The election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced Monday it shifted Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) race in Nebraska toward the Democrats.
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, part of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, shifted Bacon’s race in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic,” noting a flurry of recent polling showing Vice President Harris leading former President Trump in the district in addition to surveys showing Bacon behind his Democratic challenger.
Kondik pointed to polling from The New York Times/Siena College showing Bacon trailing Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas by 3 points, a CNN/SSRS poll showing Bacon behind Vargas by 6 points and a Split Ticket/SurveyUSA survey also showing Bacon 6 points behind Vargas. Vargas’s lead falls within the margin of error for each poll.
Kondik also noted several Democratic-sponsored polls showed Vargas outperforming Bacon.
“Nonpartisan House polling is generally very hard to come by, so it’s fairly rare to get not just one nonpartisan poll of a district, let alone several within roughly a month (New York Times, CNN, and SurveyUSA), all showing the incumbent trailing,” Kondik wrote.