The closest races are likely to happen on the coast, the Salem area, eastern Portland suburbs and the Bend area. (Getty Images)
More than three-quarters of Oregon’s legislative races are not likely to be competitive this year. But that still leaves some serious competition.
The odds are that nearly all of Oregon’s competitive legislative races in November will happen in four areas around the state: the coast, Salem area, eastern Portland suburbs and the Bend area. They accounted for nearly all of the tight races of 2022, and they happen to be the parts of Oregon in political transition.
In the last Senate race in 2020 and the last House race in 2022, the coast accounted for two close races in which the winner had less than 55% of the vote. Republican state Sen. Dick Anderson won in the 5th Senate District, with 49.3% of the vote, while Republican Rep. Cyrus Javadi won with 51.1% of the vote. Both of those incumbents are running again this year against new Democratic opponents. As incumbents, they’re probably favored, but not by much.