The Wisconsin Senate race has shifted from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up” in the latest rating change from Cook Political Report, dealing a blow to Democrats as they seek to hold on to their slim majority in the upper chamber.
The rating change comes less than one month before Election Day, making it the closest Senate race of the five battleground states polled by the nonpartisan election forecaster. The most recent polling from the Cook Political Report shows Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) leading by just 2 percentage points over GOP challenger Eric Hovde , down from her 7-point lead in August.
Other polling shows Baldwin with a healthier lead, such as a recent survey from the New York Times and Siena College showing the Democratic incumbent with a 7-point lead in late September. A Marquette Law School poll conducted around the same time also showed Baldwin with a 7-point advantage.
Hovde’s rise in the polls comes as he has consolidated support among Republicans after emerging from a crowded primary field of Republican candidates, largely thanks to a coveted endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Since then, Hovde has also managed to win the support of some independent voters, which will be key in the battleground state.