NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — Hurricane Milton remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane Wednesday morning with winds of 155 mph but is showing signs of weakening. An eyewall replacement cycle coupled with dry air to the west and increasing wind shear should continue to weaken the system through the day. It will still be a very dangerous situation, but it will not look like it has the past couple of days by the time it moves inland.
The structure of the storm will likely begin to breakdown as it reaches the coast. This will push the heaviest rain to the north of the center and that will be where the most likely rainfall flooding occurs.
The strongest surge will be south of the center. Right now that looks to miss Tampa Bay. As the center passes over or just south of the bay, the most dangerous surge will be from Sarasota to Port Charlotte. These areas could see 10 feet or more of surge.
Wind gusts will cause damage and likely widespread power outages. However extreme winds look unlikely as this moves inland thanks to the weakening structure of the storm.