It’s beginning to feel a lot like autumn in Texas — for now, at least — as a cold front sweeps across the Lone Star State , bringing the lowest temperatures since April.
But the slow start to cooler fall temperatures might also hint at a similarly mild winter ahead.
According to the annual National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s United States winter outlook report from the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are strongly expected throughout the country. The U.S. has a 74% chance of La Niña conditions, while there is a 40% chance of this being a moderate event.
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Here’s what that means for Texas.
NOAA winter forecast for Texas
La Niña typically brings drier and warmer weather conditions to the southeastern portion of the U.S. during the winter, meaning above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
- The National Weather Service forecasts warmer-than-usual temperatures through February for most of Texas, with the exception of the northeastern tip of the Panhandle, where average temperatures are expected.
- In the southern portion of the state—anything south of Austin by latitude—there’s a 50% to 60% chance of above-average temperatures.
- In North and West Texas, the likelihood decreases from 40% to 50%.
- For the South Plains, High Plains, and towns along the Oklahoma border, there’s a 30% to 40% chance of warmer-than-average temperature.
- The majority of the state also has a 50% to 60% likelihood of below-average precipitation, with the exception of towns along the Texas-Oklahoma-Arkansas border.