The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day 2 Convective Outlook, highlighting a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Central Plains into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are anticipated, particularly in western and central Kansas during the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday.
An upper-level low pressure system, currently over the Four Corners region, is forecasted to move northeast across the Central Plains. As this system progresses, it will enhance mid-level flow and introduce colder temperatures, setting the stage for potential severe weather. A weak surface low is expected to traverse Kansas, accompanied by some modest low-level moisture.
Initially, showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing from the Texas Panhandle to far eastern Colorado and western Kansas early Monday, fueled by warm advection. Although a predominantly linear storm mode is expected, vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized updrafts, posing a risk for large hail.