When you hear the term bellwether, you might think about states in the presidential election that always vote with the White House winner. But the true meaning of a bellwether is an indicator of a trend and, for that, you need to think about counties.
In a closely contested presidential election, as many expect this one to be, the results in a few bellwether counties in the key battleground states are likely to decide the outcome — just as they did in the past two general elections.
Here’s a look at those that might matter the most on Election Day.
Election 2024 Explainer Bellwethers
Poll volunteers work Nov. 3, 2020, inside Ford Field in Detroit. Large voter turnout in cities like Detroit can affect the final statewide margin.
Start with cities
Many of those states have large, Democratic-leaning cities. These cities and their inner suburbs are an important source of Democratic votes in statewide elections. These areas consistently vote for Democratic candidates, which means turnout in these places can have an outsized effect on the final statewide margin.