Heading into the fourth quarter of its game against Hawaii on Saturday, Fresno State’s defense appeared to have covered its assignment well. After giving up a first-quarter touchdown to the Rainbow Warriors, spotting them a 7-0 lead, the Bulldogs held Hawaii without a point for nearly 40 straight minutes, building a 20-7 advantage.
Considering that Hawaii was considered a 12.5-point underdog by FanDuel heading into the game, that score felt about right.
But in the final 9:04, Hawaii rallied twice to score, first on a nine-yard touchdown pass from Brayden Schager to Nick Cenacle to cap a 12-play, 87-yard drive, then on another Schager-Cenacle connection of three yards with just 15 seconds on the clock.
That left Fresno State, which had a 95% chance of winning with 1:56 to go in the game, according to ESPN’s win probability tracker , utterly stunned. It was at the 1:56 point that Cenacle–who needed some redemption–fumbled at the Fresno State 22-yard line.
It was also some redemption for Schager, a senior who leads the Mountain West in completions and attempts this season. He had helped dig the Warriors’ hole by throwing an interception deep in Bulldogs territory late in the third quarter. Phoenix Jackson, who made the pick, converted it into a touchdown with an 89-yard run.