Potential Topical Cyclone Eighteen has formed in the Caribbean and is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph. It is expected to turn to the north and then northwest over the next few days.
But what does that mean for the Tampa Bay area?
ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips said, “The NHC track is one that is good news for the Peninsula. A track this far west doesn’t mean we won’t see some impacts, but those impacts would be lower the farther west it goes. Increasing rain chances are a given. There could be some coastal surge, but the farther west, the lower this risk will be.”
Here are Denis Phillips’ thoughts from Sunday evening:
- PTC will become Rafael and move into the Gulf. Right now, the NHC says way west. Yes, it could still change. Either way, I put my Christmas decorations up for a reason. I don’t expect a big impact on our area. Definitely some rain midweek though.
- I don’t expect the area in yellow to bother anyone. As a matter of fact, I think it gets “eaten” by what will become Rafael. So that’s why I haven’t talked about about it. It’s a non-factor.
- PTC 18 expected to become a hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for the Keys later tonight.
- At this point, if the NHC track verifies, I doubt we see any advisories here. It’s early, things can (and often do) change. So keep it here. We’ll update (as always) 24/7.
- Rule #7. Nothing to freak out about even when Rafael becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean. Lots of shear, dry air and cooler waters should knock it down a lot once it hits the Gulf.