New Orleans has mostly dodged the big hurricanes this year, such as Beryl, Helene, and Milton. However, based on AccuWeather models, it appears it may not be so lucky in the final month of hurricane season.
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A new tropical storm, Rafael, is near Jamaica and heading toward Cuba, and somewhere along that path, which will take it through the Gulf of Mexico, the models show it will land east of New Orleans.
“This storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday morning as a Category 1 or possibly a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in western Cuba,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Geordan Lewis said. That said, the warmer-than-usual waters in the Gulf made Helene and Milton more violent than expected.
On paper, Rafael could be the last large storm of the season, which ends in three weeks. However, bathwater-type temperatures in the Gulf could extend that into December. It would not be wise to count chickens.