11/14 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Colder Shoulder” Thursday Night Forecast

Weekend weather looks nice with above normal temperatures. Moisture increases ahead of the shortwave on Monday with showers and storms possible ahead of the front Monday night into Tuesday. Quite a bit of difference in the surface pattern beyond that point as the GFS essentially has one surface low and cold front with the lead shortwave, while the ECMWF develops a more significant cyclone over the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. While Tropical Storm Sara is not forecast to directly impact the northern Gulf Coast, the troughing moving through the lower Mississippi River Valley early next week is likely to entrain moisture from Sara. This is more likely to occur with the first shortwave/cold frontal passage, and it is possible that the current forecast underplays forecasted rain and amounts for Monday night into Tuesday.

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