Tornado Risk Increases Overnight Tonight & Tomorrow
11/17/24 8:50am EST
Good morning everyone. As forecasted and discussed over the past few days, the pieces are starting to come together for a rough night tonight and Monday across areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Low pressure will emerge from Mexico and into the New Mexico, then drift across Texas and access tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The contrast in air masses and the convective energy will be more than enough to spawn widespread severe weather and heavy rain across a wide area.
The action will begin in New Mexico, west Texas, and the Texas panhandle in the form of clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon and evening. Then we will see more organized heavy thunderstorms move to the east/northeast into other areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
06Z 3K NAM Short Range 11/17/24 for 11/18/24 1:00am ESTPhoto byTropical Tidbits
Heavy rain and thunder will be widespread, but the most intense area of storms will be just ahead of that low pressure system, then trailing down along the subesequent cold front. That’ll put areas such as Dallas/Ft. Worth in the crosshairs for some severe thunderstorms. We’ll also watch that line clip southeast Kansas and east Oklahoma, then move into Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.