Brief Outlook:
On Monday, November 18, 2024, the Southern Plains, particularly northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma, are expected to experience severe weather conditions as an ongoing line of storms moves eastward. Cities such as Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa are likely to encounter significant impacts from damaging winds, and potential isolated tornadoes during the morning hours and continuing into the afternoon before sweeping through quickly.
Upper Levels:
A negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern Plains is expected to quickly advance into the Mississippi Valley by Monday. This dynamic upper-level setup will amplify the atmospheric conditions conducive to severe thunderstorm development.
Surface Forecast:
An ongoing line of storms is anticipated to be sweeping through the region by early Monday, propelled by a rapidly deepening surface low. The associated cold front will interact with a moderately unstable air mass characterized by CAPE values around 500-700 J/kg. Although these instability values are moderate, the strong dynamic lifting and substantial wind shear of 50-60 knots are expected to enhance storm organization and potential severity. This environment may support both linear and discrete supercell structures, posing risks of damaging winds, and embedded tornadoes.