Dreaming of a White Christmas: Arizona’s Snowfall Forecast

Will Arizona have a white Christmas? That depends highly on your location and whether the model data is lying to us. If you are in southern Arizona, you will not get any snow due to a lack of moisture and higher temperatures, but up on the Northern Mogollon Rim, there is a chance of it.

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the forecast model data has been inconsistent over the last few days, indicating the possibility of snow on the Mogollon Rim and then removing it from the forecast altogether. Therefore, it does not look like a significant snow event overall, but some areas may have snow on Christmas morning. Most of the data indicates that most of the snowfall will be less than an inch and, more likely, less than a half inch.

The best chances for snow are very far north in Coconino County near the border, with less than one inch of snow above 4,500 feet elevations. Higher elevations over 7,000 feet will get more. Page is probably looking at a rain-snow mix at 4,300 feet elevation and a low temperature of 35 F. The North Rim Grand Canyon area has a good shot of snow, likely less than 1 inch. The South Rim Grand Canyon could also get less than a half inch. For Flagstaff, a trace of snow to a quarter inch is possible, but the bulk of the moisture will remain north of the location. The precipitation will move east into northern Navajo and Apache Counties but is likely to change over to rain as the temperatures are forecasted to rise during the day.

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