HONOLULU (KHON2) – Latest model guidance continues to show an upper level trough deepening west of the state through tonight that will help push a frontal boundary northwest of Kauai.
Expect southwest winds over the western half of the state to gradually strengthen becoming breezy late tonight into Tuesday as the front moves south.
High resolution model guidance keeps light to moderate showers focused along southerly exposed coasts and slopes through Tuesday.
The front is expected to move over Kauai Tuesday night before weakening an shifting over Oahu Wednesday.
Increased upper level instability from the deepening trough and low level moisture riding in ahead of the front will increase chances of precipitation first over Kauai then move over Oahu.
Wednesday night into the weekend, amplified jet dynamics could further deepen the upper level trough over the state and pinch off on upper level low by the weekend, increasing instability over the state.
Lingering low- level moisture from the dissipating front will be replenished as another area of enhanced moisture is advected in from the southeast.