California’s Formula for Failure on Homelessness

When authorities closed the Modesto Outdoor Emergency Shelter (MOES) late in 2019, city officials said they expected “a possible increase in homeless-related issues and illegal camping in the downtown area.” At the time it was shut down, MOES had almost 500 residents. The expansion of a nearby shelter increased capacity to 182 beds, nowhere near enough for even a majority of MOES residents.

That initial shortfall in shelter capacity has never been remedied as current homeless numbers in Modesto exceed available shelter capacity by a ratio of over two to one. Moreover, the expected “increase in homeless-related issues” in Modesto has in fact happened, with the number of citations for such “crimes” as blocking sidewalks and breaking park curfews rising almost fivefold since the 2020-21 fiscal year.

And while an almost fivefold increase in homeless-related issues in Modesto may seem excessive, it’s only a fraction of the actual number of cases within the region. Major unacknowledged effects of chasing homeless people from Modesto city limits include the costs for county sheriffs, railroad police, Caltrans authorities and other entities, including private security…

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