A significant tornado outbreak is expected Friday night across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi. A deep low-pressure system will generate hurricane-force low-level winds, fueling multiple supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes. The highest risk will occur after sunset.
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning.
- The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
- There is an additional threat of EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley.
- There is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 120 km/h (75 mph) or greater and hail 5 cm (2 inches) or larger over the region.
A powerful surface low, forecast to reach pressures in the 970s hPa range, will move from the central Great Plains to the upper Midwest on Friday, March 14, 2025. This system will intensify the low-level jet, with wind speeds approaching hurricane force, drawing warm, moist air northward.
By sunset, dew points near 16°C (60°F) are expected as far north as St. Louis, creating an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms.
Multiple bands of supercells will develop from eastern Missouri into central and southern Illinois during the evening, progressing southward into Mississippi, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee by the middle of the night…