Today’s viewing guide is a separate post.
After looking over the contenders’ profiles and numbers, I am more confused than I have been this week. But the choice could be quite clear in the end, depending on what the Committee values the most for 2025. However, we won’t know that for sure until Sunday night.
- If metrics matter the most to them, North Carolina is going to be in, perhaps safely, as the Tar Heels are well within at-large range in the NET, KenPom, and WAB.
- If quality wins matter, it’s going to be Texas, who has more Quad 1 wins (7) than UNC, Indiana, and Xavier have combined (6).
- If generally not making a fool of yourself matters, Xavier will sneak in despite having just one Quad 1 win. The Musketeers, however, are 9-11 in Quad 1 and 2 games with no Quad 3 or 4 losses. Compare that to North Carolina (9-12 with 1 Quad 3 loss to Stanford), Texas (10-15 against Quads 1 and 2 with no Quad 3 or 4 losses), and Indiana (9-13 in Quad 1 and 2 games with no Quad 3 or 4 losses). Simply put, Xavier needed slightly fewer opportunities than the competition to get their Quad 1 and 2 wins … barely.
Once again, I will be running through things again today and tonight, so tomorrow’s answer might yet be different, but for now. That’s where I think things stand.
Up (⬆︎) and down (⬇︎) arrows reflect movement of a seed line (or more) relative to the bracket projection for Friday, March 14, 2025, while a star (★) indicates a new entry. Teams that have clinched auto bids (13/31) are in BOLD CAPS.
Top Left: (1) South (Atlanta)
Lexington (Thursday and Saturday)…