The National Weather Service in Honolulu predicts a period of moisture increase and atmospheric destabilization for the archipelago. According to an update provided by the NWS on their website, the blend of GFS and ECMWF models suggests showers are on the rise, with potentially heavy downpours hitting windward slopes while leeward areas could see spotty afternoon showers persisting until Sunday.
Weather patterns will see a shift as high pressure northeast of the state weakens, while winds are expected to veer east to southeast. Showers, influenced by an upper-level low just north of the islands, should increase in frequency and intensity. “An upper level low just north of the islands, combined with the upper level trough associated with the surface low west of the islands, will provide instability over the coming days.” With current moisture already at around an inch, projections anticipate a rise to between 1.3 and 1.5 inches of precipitable water, as per the National Weather Service.
The forecast remains consistent with previous statements, highlighting the lack of need for a Flood Watch at this time, yet acknowledges the potential for conditions to evolve, therefore, the situation warrants continuous monitoring. Over the weekend, the greatest chance for thunderstorms remains north of the coastal waters, though an isolated rumble could make its presence known within the region…