AUSTIN, Texas ( KXAN ) – We’re getting our first look into next winter with the latest Climate Prediction Center ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) Outlook released on Thursday .
While currently in a La Niña pattern, we’re expected to return to ENSO Neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) within the next month as sea surface temperatures in the Niño Zones return to near average, away from their cooler-than-normal phase that brought us into La Niña.
ENSO Neutral means that the water temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean won’t have a predictable impact on the weather pattern here in North America and that we must look at other signals and short or long-term pattern changes to figure out what type of weather we’re likely to see.
That ENSO Neutral pattern, once it develops, is expected to continue through the summer season (June-August). It’s what comes after that drives up curiosity.
Next winter: Two options rise above
Spring can be a particularly challenging time for forecast accuracy of ENSO with higher confidence in the forecast arriving in the summer…