ROANOKE, Va. (WFXR) — Mild conditions will continue tonight with the chance for patchy fog to develop towards the morning. Nightly patchy fog will be possible during the week as well.
Monday will see the beginning of a pattern change for the week. It will begin to feel more humid as moisture starts to flow northward. It remains warm with highs for the day in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
There will be the chance for showers and storms in the afternoon to evening hours. Areas near and south of US-460 will see the best chance.
Temperatures and humidity continue to rise throughout the week with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s close to 90 in some spots by midweek. This will bring the heat index values past 90 along and east of the Blue Ridge.
The heat and moisture will promote a daily chance for showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage looks highest on Wednesday with a localized heavy rainfall potential. A frontal boundary to the north that stalls out will keep the daily storm chances in the forecast through the end of the week.
Tracking the Tropics: Invest 96L continues to only have a low chance for slow development as it tracks to the north over open ocean.
Invest 97L will likely be the next named storm with a medium chance to become a tropical depression within 48 hours before it hits cooler waters briefly. Environmental conditions become more favorable again to the west over the central tropical Atlantic where the NHC has a high chance for tropical development by the mid-to-late half of this week as it moves generally west-northwestwards.
In the long range, this will likely become Erin and even become the first hurricane of the season. Some model guidance shows an eventual recurve in the western Atlantic; however, model skill with a disturbance at the day 5-10 range have little skill, especially before a well defined center of circulation develops. For now, it is too early to discuss potential U.S. impacts but check back in for updates over the next week…