Breathe it in, friends — after a few years of fits and starts, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS just dropped their official 2026 forecast, and it’s looking like blue skies are finally breaking through the clouds.
Here’s the big headline: California real estate is expected to inch forward in 2026 — and Fresno is perfectly positioned to ride the wave.
📈 The California Picture
- Sales are set to rise. California is projected to see 274,400 existing single-family homes sold in 2026, up 2% from 2025’s pace. That might sound small, but momentum starts slow — and this could be the spark we’ve been waiting for.
- Prices are climbing (but calmly). The statewide median home price is expected to hit $905,000 — a 3.6% boost. After a flat 2025, this is a welcome sign that buyer confidence is coming back.
- Affordability is inching up. Yep — the Housing Affordability Index is projected to move from 17% in 2025 to 18% in 2026. That might not sound like fireworks, but it means more families will actually be able to step into homeownership.
- Rates are loosening their grip. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to drop from 6.6% to 6.0%. While that’s still higher than the ultra-low pandemic years, it’s far easier on buyers than the 7%+ rates we’ve been navigating.
🌞 How This Hits Fresno
Here in the Central Valley, we’ve always marched to the beat of our own drum — and in 2026, that beat sounds a lot like steady, healthy growth.
- Fresno’s median home price has hovered in the low $400Ks, less than half of the statewide median — which means as prices rise statewide, Fresno shines as the affordable option for buyers migrating inland.
- Homes are still moving — just at a more reasonable pace than the frenzy of a couple years ago. Days on market are hovering around 40–50, which gives buyers breathing room and sellers serious shoppers.
- Local confidence is building. As mortgage rates dip and supply ticks up, expect more Fresno listings hitting the market — especially from sellers who’ve been waiting for signs of life.
💡 Why This Is Good News
This forecast isn’t calling for a rocket ship. It’s calling for something even better, stability.
Buyers who were sidelined by sky-high competition and crushing rates will start trickling back in. Sellers will feel more confident listing. And Fresno’s affordability will keep our market moving even when other California metros stall out…