Clouds and areas of fog gave way to sunshine and 80° highs on Tuesday afternoon. It’s just the beginning of an extended stretch of October warmth that will last through Friday.
There won’t be too many weather concerns through Friday, but winds will get a bit breezy on Friday as a storm pushes into the region.
The storm will push a strong cold front into the Ozarks on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the region outlined for a risk of severe storms during the day. Severe weather ingredients are there, but sometimes it comes down to timing and how the ingredients mix. At this stage, it looks like rain and thunderstorms will spill in from the northwest by Saturday morning. Rain and thunder will likely be fairly widespread, building east and southeast, encompassing all of the Ozarks by late morning.
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The early arrival and widespread nature of the rain may take a lot of the punch out of the atmosphere for afternoon storms. If that happens, look for the severe weather risk to primarily be east and south across the outlook area.
The alternative would be a slower onset of storms or a less widespread round of morning rain. With the cold front not arriving until later in the afternoon that would pose a greater risk of severe weather.
So, if you’ve got plans this Saturday, particularly outdoor plans, please continue to follow the forecast and be ready to make changes if necessary.
Following Saturday’s storm threat, a blast of fall air. The cool air mass will likely lead to our chilliest lows yet this fall, Sunday morning and Monday morning.
We’re getting into a more active stretch of weather, too, one that will lead to more frequent swings in temperatures. We still don’t see a pattern that will deliver our first freeze. We will see gradually cooler rounds of weather as we end the month, but it appears increasingly likely that for many, the first freeze of the season will hold off until November…