Additional Coverage:
- Gaza famine claims face mounting scrutiny as mortality data falls far short of predictions (foxnews.com)
Questions Arise Over Gaza Famine Claims Amidst Shifting Data and Aid Distribution Challenges
Despite ongoing humanitarian aid efforts in Gaza following a recent ceasefire, questions are being raised about the accuracy of claims by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) that famine conditions gripped the region this summer. An expert is also scrutinizing the agency’s organizational ties.
David Adesnik, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, highlighted the distinction between mere hunger and famine. “What makes famine different from just hunger or deprivation is that it’s lethal,” Adesnik told Fox News Digital.
He explained that by the IPC’s own definition-where famine claims two lives per day per 10,000 people-a famine in Gaza should have resulted in approximately 9,000 deaths from hunger or hunger-related diseases by now. “They didn’t have data showing that mortality rate had been reached,” he added.
On August 22, the IPC asserted that famine was present in one Gaza governorate and was projected to spread to two additional governorates by September 30.
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Data from the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health reported 273 Palestinian deaths from famine and malnutrition during nearly two years of conflict as of August 22. This number reportedly rose to 460 by October 7, an increase of 187.
“I imagine it was a horrific end for those 187 individuals. But an accusation of famine is supposed to rest on evidence,” Adesnik commented.
Adesnik also pointed out that “the IPC forecast a major worsening of the food security situation,” which he noted “should drive prices substantially higher. But in fact, we’ve seen the opposite.” The World Food Programme’s Palestine Market Monitor indicates that prices for 60 out of 89 essential food and non-food items in three Gazan governorates remained stable or even declined between late August and the third week of September.
When Fox News Digital sought clarification from the IPC, WFP, U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) regarding the presence of famine in Gaza, OCHA and FAO deferred to the IPC, which did not respond.
Further concerns have emerged regarding potential bias in the IPC’s famine predictions. The IPC’s governance structure, which includes non-governmental organizations, government institutions, and U.N. agencies, is not transparently disclosed.
These organizations also supply personnel who serve as Technical Working Group (TWG) members, supporting the IPC’s implementation at the country level. The IPC did not respond to inquiries about the identities of these entities or how their personnel are compensated.
Recent allegations have also drawn criticism towards U.N. agencies and international NGOs for perceived alignment with Hamas. While Eri Kaneko of OCHA stated that her organization does not participate in IPC TWGs, the FAO informed Fox News Digital that during crises, “the IPC coordinates global analyses with technical experts from several partner organizations, including FAO, WFP, UNICEF, OCHA, and others from the wider IPC network, such as international and national NGOs.”
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The U.N.’s food distribution model itself has faced scrutiny due to extensive looting by both armed and unarmed individuals. The United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) reported that 80.5% (6,800 out of 8,440) of U.N. trucks had been intercepted since May 19.
“That can’t possibly be the fairest way to distribute aid,” Adesnik remarked. “There’s some indication that when in a situation like that, it’s the strongest who can claim their share of the aid.
And that’s sort of the opposite of how we probably like it to be, and it doesn’t seem the U.N. is doing anything to fix the situation.”
Kaneko acknowledged that aid interception “is a serious concern.” She stated that the U.N.’s plan to scale operations “focuses on resuming community-based and household-level distributions – the most effective way to ensure that aid reaches the most vulnerable.”
Kaneko emphasized that for the plan to succeed, in addition to the ceasefire, “we also need open crossings; safe movement for civilians, including aid workers; unrestricted entry of goods; visas for humanitarian staff; space to operate; and a revival of the private sector.” Since the ceasefire began, OCHA has reported “a possible reduction in the rate of interception,” with UNOPS data showing that slightly more than 75% of items shipped into Gaza have reached their destinations since May.
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Adesnik also raised concerns about alterations in OCHA Humanitarian Situation Reports, which previously detailed the proportion of aid seekers who died near Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) distribution sites versus those who perished near U.N. aid convoys. After reports between July 21 and August 18 indicated more deaths at U.N. convoy sites (576) than near GHF distribution sites (259), Adesnik observed, “we noticed that for the first time, [OCHA] omitted that number of people killed while seeking aid.” He questioned whether “because the numbers turned against them, they’re just going to stop reporting it.”
Kaneko clarified that the change is temporary, explaining that data on deaths around convoys and distributions is “typically provided by two sources and always attributed accordingly” and that “if no new data is received from either source by the time an update is finalized, figures from that source may only appear in a subsequent update.”
Since its inception in May, the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has delivered over 185 million free meals to Palestinians, leading some to wonder if it could supplement or even replace the U.N./NGO system. A GHF spokesperson told Fox News Digital that the GHF “has conveyed its openness and flexibility to adapt to U.N.-established norms” and “has been offering, for several months, to help the U.N. and other humanitarian groups deliver their aid securely and safely into Gaza.”
Adding to the complexity of the hunger situation in Gaza was a recent statement on X from UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, who, while commending the ceasefire agreement, claimed his agency has “enough to provide food for the entire population for the coming three months.” In response, Adesnik noted, “For the past five months, the U.N. has sent in thousands of trucks, knowing eight or nine out of ten would be looted. If they had coordinated with Israel on security, that aid could’ve been delivered into the hands of those who needed it most.”