A potent storm system currently moving across the interior Southwest is forecast to track eastward, bringing the risk of damaging thunderstorms, flash flooding, and significant travel disruptions to a broad area from Texas to Missouri and Arkansas during the final weekend of October.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that the storm will be fueled by an influx of warm, moist air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico, providing the energy needed for intense thunderstorm development.
Severe Threat Timeline
The severe weather threat will expand in coverage and intensity through the end of the week:
- Thursday Evening: Thunderstorms may first reach severe levels across parts of eastern New Mexico, northwestern Texas, and southwestern Kansas.
- Friday: The threat shifts eastward to include north-central Texas, central Oklahoma, and south-central Kansas. While a few tornadoes are possible, the main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and flash flooding from torrential downpours.
- Friday Night and Saturday: The highest risk area for severe weather will extend from the central and northeastern parts of Texas to southern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region.
Flash Flood Risk Increases in the East
As the storm progresses slowly from the High Plains toward the Ozark Mountains, the danger of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will become a more significant concern. Localized rainfall totals could reach 4 to 6 inches, creating a dangerous situation for urban areas and small streams.
Motorists are strongly urged to exercise extreme caution, especially along Interstates 30, 35, 40, and 44 in the region. Campers and hikers in the Ozark Mountains should be particularly vigilant, as steep terrain can funnel several inches of rain in a short period, leading to sudden and life-threatening rises in water levels.
Drought Relief vs. Flash Flood Danger
The good news is that much of the heavy rain will fall on ground that has been dry due to months of drought, meaning the ground will absorb a significant amount of moisture. This rain may provide a much-needed benefit to the dry landscape. However, the anticipated boost to low water levels on the Mississippi River is expected to be slight and short-lived…