ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR COAST MAY CAUSE A FEW TORNADOES OVERNIGHT… Unfortunately, the expected Round 2 (of 2) of the strong to severe thunderstorms is materializing this evening across Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and the northern Gulf near Dauphin Island and Ft. Morgan. These storms will expand in size and very slowly translate to the east over the next several hours. The Storm Prediction Center now has a Level 2 (out of 5) tornado risk in place for much of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, specifically the southern parts of these counties closer to the coast. These are the zones where the air mass in place is a bit more unstable and may support a few tornadoes in addition to very heavy rainfall. Everyone should have multiple ways to hear warnings before you go to sleep tonight, just in case a tornado warning is needed for your specific location!
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – OVERNIGHT… There was some thought earlier that the first round of storms that happened this morning and this afternoon may stabilize the atmosphere to the point that this second round of storms doesn’t fire up. Unfortunately, the atmosphere has destabilized to the point that we are now seeing strong storms develop near Mobile Bay. The progression to the east will be slow, plain and simple, although we may see some new storms develop in the northern Gulf that push onshore in Northwest Florida before these storms arrive. The severe weather risk will be most pronounced for Mobile and Baldwin counties over the next few hours until 1AM. The risk will ramp up across northwest Florida after 10PM and extend into the overnight hours. Please have something that can wake you up (like a NOAA Weather Radio) in case your specific location goes under a tornado warning overnight.
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS… Parts of southern Baldwin (AL) and southern Escambia (FL) counties had extreme rain amounts earlier today. Several rain gauges near Orange Beach, specifically, ended up with 8+ inches of total rainfall just this morning. This means that flash flooding may happen quickly across coastal areas and become quite significant in a hurry. These storms will be efficient and prolific rain producers overnight for areas near the coast. It cannot be stressed enough, if you encounter a water-covered roadway, please “turn around, don’t drown.” We lose way too many folks across America each year to this totally preventable cause of death…