Additional Coverage:
- Flight delay data is already flashing red as the government shutdown drags on. Will your holiday air travel be affected? (businessinsider.com)
Holiday Travel Alert: Government Shutdown Threatens Major Air Travel Disruptions
HOUSTON, TX – Brace yourselves, holiday travelers! The ongoing government shutdown is casting a long shadow over upcoming air travel, with mounting data suggesting significant flight and airport delays are becoming the new norm. Passengers are already facing serpentine security lines and unexpected disruptions, and experts warn the situation could escalate as the busy holiday season approaches.
The core of the problem lies with critical aviation personnel – air traffic controllers and TSA agents – who have been working without pay for over a month. This staffing shortage is creating a ripple effect across the nation’s airports, from major hubs to smaller regional facilities.
While October’s average delays initially appeared somewhat normal, recent data from aviation analytics firm Cirium reveals a concerning trend. Approximately 20% of flights at major U.S. airports departed late in October 2025, a slight increase from September. More critically, October’s delay rates have surpassed those of prior years, with FAA data showing 12.8% in 2024, 14.7% in 2023, and 16% in 2022.
The impact isn’t confined to specific airports. Earlier this month, Los Angeles and Burbank experienced temporary closures. By October 30, nearly a month into the shutdown, the average delay rate at most major airports spiked to over 30%.
These staffing shortfalls at air traffic facilities are forcing flights to be held at their origins or rerouted, leading to widespread FAA advisories. “This is unprecedented,” an air traffic controller confided, highlighting the existing strain on their community even before the shutdown began.
Holiday Season Could Push System to the Brink
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy recently warned that if the shutdown persists another week, the government might be forced to close some airspace due to an inability to manage it. He emphasized that the approaching holiday travel in November and December will only intensify these challenges, potentially preventing people from reaching their destinations.
The current situation echoes the 2018-2019 shutdown, which lasted 35 days and concluded only after a surge in controller absences forced a temporary halt of inbound flights at LaGuardia and widespread delays at other airports.
The volatility of the situation was evident this past weekend. The Department of Transportation reported that staffing issues accounted for a staggering 65% of delays on Friday, 59% on Saturday, and 84% on Sunday – a stark contrast to the pre-shutdown average of just 5%. The FAA acknowledged on Friday that “half of our Core 30 facilities are experiencing staffing shortages,” with nearly 80% of New York-area controllers absent.
Sunday saw over 40% of flights delayed in Nashville and Newark, while Orlando experienced delays topping 30% after earlier arrival halts. “I think the real consequence is, what kind of rolling delays do you have throughout the system, right?”
Duffy remarked on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “We’ve seen problems at LA, in Dallas, in DC, Boston, Atlanta.
And so I think it’s only going to get worse.”
Flightaware data showed nearly 4,800 delays within, to, and from the U.S. on Monday, with almost 4,000 on Tuesday. While some days may see temporary stabilization, these periods of calm can quickly dissipate as staffing strains compound.
Beyond air traffic control, the shortage of TSA agents is also a significant concern. Travel analyst Henry Harteveldt noted that this will make it even harder for passengers to catch flights that do depart on time.
During the previous shutdown, the TSA absentee rate more than tripled from 3% to 10%, leading to incredibly long security queues. Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport, for example, experienced a three-hour security wait on Monday – weeks before the peak Thanksgiving and Christmas travel periods.
Rising Risks and Urgent Concerns
While Transportation Secretary Duffy assures that boarding an airplane remains safe, he acknowledged that “a level of risk gets injected into the system when we have a controller that’s doing two jobs instead of one.”
Art Wheaton, a transportation industries expert at Cornell University, called working as a controller without pay “playing with fire.” He added that this situation is exacerbating an already understaffed workforce, which is reportedly short by approximately 3,000 controllers.
Aviation safety consultant Anthony Brickhouse emphasized that while controllers are highly skilled, humans have a breaking point. “When we add financial stress and fatigue to an already high-stress job, we could be looking at something a lot more serious than a two or three-hour delay,” he cautioned. While recent near-misses cannot be directly attributed to the shutdown, they undoubtedly heighten concerns for anxious travelers.
Brickhouse stressed the urgency of the situation: “I’m not saying passengers shouldn’t fly, but this really speaks to the urgency at the moment and how important it is to have our politics come together and figure this out.”