Wildfire risk is making timberland less valuable

Longer harvest rotations are also becoming less feasible, meaning trees may have to be logged before their optimal age

Burn notice: Rising wildfire risk and volatile timber pricing may lower forestland values by as much as 50%. Photo: Steve Lundeberg/OSU

November 11, 2025. By Steve Lundeberg/Oregon State University. Rising wildfire risk in the Pacific Northwest combined with notoriously volatile timber pricing may lower forestland values by as much as 50% and persuade plantation owners to harvest trees much earlier than planned, a new analysis of Douglas-fir forests shows.

Under the worst-case scenarios, modeling by researchers at Oregon State University suggests harvesting trees at 24 years would make the most economic sense…

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