If it feels like Erie’s Christmas weather has become harder to predict, the numbers back that up. Using local data from two 10-year windows—2000–2009 and 2015–2024—a clear pattern emerges: temperatures are warmer overall, and Christmas Day snow is less frequent, but the years that do produce snow can deliver much bigger totals.
Temperatures: A Noticeable Jump
Across the 10 years in each period, the average temperature in the more recent window (2015–2024) came in at 41.1°F, compared to 33.4°F from 2000–2009—a rise of roughly 7–8 degrees.
That matters for Christmas because small temperature shifts near freezing can flip precipitation between snow, mix, and…..