Additional Coverage:
Jobless Claims Dip Below 200,000, Defying Expectations
The nation’s new jobless claims have once again surprised economists, falling below 200,000 for the week ending Saturday, December 25. This marks the third consecutive week of declining claims, signaling a potentially positive trend in the labor market.
The Department of Labor announced Wednesday that new jobless claims dropped by approximately 16,000, settling at a seasonally adjusted 199,000. This figure significantly undercuts the 220,000 claims estimated by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll.
“Seasonally adjusted” refers to a statistical method that filters out predictable seasonal fluctuations, such as those caused by holidays or weather, to provide a clearer picture of underlying economic trends.
This latest decline represents the seventh drop in new jobless claims over the past eight weeks, according to MarketWatch.
While the prior week’s new jobless claims were slightly revised upward by 1,000 to 215,000, the overall trend remains downward. Unadjusted claims for last week, at 269,953, saw a modest increase of 5,333 from the previous week but were still considerably lower than the 283,488 reported during the same period in 2024.
In related news, the number of individuals with continuing unemployment claims also saw a significant decrease, falling by 47,000 to 1.87 million for the week ending December 20. This is a welcome change after a period of rising continuing claims linked to a slowdown in hiring since the pandemic.
Despite these encouraging numbers, some economists urge caution, suggesting that the sluggish hiring pace observed since the summer could still be a precursor to a broader economic slowdown. The national unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November, its highest point since September 2021.
As of December 13, the states reporting the highest unemployment rates were Washington (2.5%), New Jersey (2.4%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.2%), and California, Illinois, and Rhode Island (all 2.1%).