CHICAGO — New research analyzing tornado occurrences from 1995 to 2025 is shedding light on a long-standing question in meteorology: do certain types of tornadoes form more often over specific land-cover types?
Based on the charts and spatial plots provided, the answer appears to be yes — especially for landspout tornadoes, which show a strong preference for open agricultural and grassland environments across the central and eastern United States.
What the Data Shows About Landspout Tornadoes
The bar chart comparing land-cover area percentage vs. tornado occurrence reveals a clear signal:
- Landspout tornadoes occur disproportionately over cultivated cropland and grassland
- These areas account for a much higher percentage of landspout reports than their share of total land cover
- Very few landspouts occur over forests, wetlands, or developed urban land
This aligns with meteorological theory. Landspouts typically form in environments with weak wind shear but strong surface boundaries, which are more common over flat, open terrain.
How Tornado Intensity Changes With Land Cover
The data also compares EF-scale tornadoes (EF0–EF3+) across land-cover categories:
- EF0 and EF1 tornadoes follow landspout patterns closely, favoring open fields and farmland
- Stronger tornadoes (EF2+) show a broader land-cover distribution, including:
- Grasslands
- Cultivated croplands
- Transitional shrub/scrub areas
- Forested regions still show significantly lower occurrence rates, even for stronger events
This suggests land cover does not cause stronger tornadoes, but open terrain may better support the boundary interactions that initiate weaker tornadoes.
Spatial Maps Reinforce the Pattern
The spatial distribution maps further support these findings:
- Landspout events cluster heavily in agricultural corridors
- The Great Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Southeast show dense concentrations
- Higher-end EF tornadoes are more evenly scattered, reflecting their dependence on large-scale atmospheric dynamics rather than surface land type alone
Notably, urban and heavily forested regions show sparse tornado clustering, even when accounting for reporting bias.
Why This Research Matters
Understanding land-cover preferences helps improve:
- Tornado forecasting confidence
- Risk communication for rural communities
- Future modeling of boundary-driven tornado environments
It also reinforces why rural agricultural regions continue to experience high tornado frequency, even during seasons with marginal severe weather setups.
What Comes Next
The research script used to generate this data opens the door for deeper analysis, including:
- Seasonal breakdowns by land cover
- Changes before and after land-use expansion
- Links between drought, vegetation cycles, and landspout frequency
As datasets continue to improve, land-surface interactions may become a more prominent part of severe weather forecasting.
What do you think — should land-cover data play a bigger role in tornado forecasting and risk messaging?…