With temperatures well above average for the Metro East region, a system is set to bring the possibility of thunderstorms and severe weather to the region late Thursday.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has the St. Louis region under a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday, January 8, as a low-pressure system moves into the area. The majority of the risk appears to be south of the region, with the Metro East region being on the northern end of the warm sector.
The St. Louis NWS stated that with the warning area sampling the warm sector of this low-pressure system, there is a chance for thunderstorms. The warm sector destabilizing has what instability present, being confined to the low levels, mostly beneath the freezing level. This will limit, if not completely mitigate actual lightning production.
“However, there is still a low probability for severe weather, as a minority of guidance shows ample low-level wind shear among a 30-40% probability of 250 J/kg of SBCAPE across southeastern Missouri per the NBM,” the St. Louis NWS said in their daily forecasting discussion. “If this amount of instability or more is realized, the shear present is more than enough for rotating low-topped showers capable of tornadoes in this portion of the CWA. Again, the probability of this is low, and we will continue to monitor model trends for this threat.”…