Young children’s share of the population dropped across major U.S. metros over the past two decades, census data shows, with Phoenix seeing a steeper drop than most.
Why it matters: Kids’ population trends can reflect cities’ ability to attract, retain and support families.
- But larger nationwide factors are also at play, including birth and death rates as well as immigration.
By the numbers: Among the 50 largest metros, Salt Lake City (-3.2 percentage points), San Jose (-3pp), Los Angeles (-2.8pp) and Phoenix (-2.8pp) had the biggest dips in young children’s share of their overall population between 2005 and 2024.
- That’s compared to -1.6pp among the U.S. broadly, and includes children younger than 5.
State of play: The U.S. birth rate hit a record low in 2024, while life expectancy is approaching 80 following a pandemic-era dip.
- Those data points might suggest children will make up less of the overall population over time — fewer kids, more older folks.
- Yet the country grew around 1% between 2023 and 2024 — breakneck speed, as such things go — driven primarily by immigrants (including children, complicating the births vs. deaths picture).
The intrigue: The Trump administration’s efforts to clamp down on and dissuade illegal immigration could affect kids’ population shares in ways not yet well understood…