Additional Coverage:
- Five keys for Indiana upending Miami, completing historic run with first national title in school history (cbssports.com)
Keys to Victory: How Indiana Plans to Conquer Miami in the National Championship
As the highly anticipated National Championship approaches, all eyes are on the undefeated No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers as they prepare to face the formidable No.
10 Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. While the ultimate goal remains simple-score more points than the opponent-achieving that feat requires a strategic approach.
Here’s a breakdown of the critical factors that could determine the Hoosiers’ path to their first-ever program national title.
1. Prioritize Ball Security and Capitalize on Turnovers
In football, some adages endure for a reason, and protecting the football is one of them. Indiana has masterfully embraced this principle throughout the season, boasting the nation’s best turnover rate in the Power Four at a mere 4.8%. This exceptional ball security not only provides their offense with more opportunities but also sets the stage for a critical advantage.
The Hoosiers truly shine in their ability to convert turnovers into points. With an astounding 134 points scored off turnovers this season-nine more than the second-highest team nationally-Indiana has consistently demonstrated its predatory instincts.
The recent Peach Bowl semifinal, where D’Angelo Ponds delivered a pick-six on the opening play and a Dante Moore fumble quickly led to another touchdown, exemplifies this efficiency. This prolific scoring off turnovers, coupled with a nation-leading points off turnover margin per game of 7.33, positions Indiana for a significant edge.
While Miami also boasts a respectable turnover margin (ranking 6th nationally), the Hoosiers’ consistent ability to avoid mistakes and punish those of their opponents could be the decisive factor in a tightly contested championship game.
2. Mitigate Miami’s Potent Pass Rush
While Indiana’s offense has been a juggernaut this season, an area that demands attention is its pass protection. The Hoosiers have allowed pressure on 28.5% of dropbacks, placing them 36th nationally, with an average time to pressure of 2.53 seconds (69th nationally).
Recent games, particularly against Alabama in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, have highlighted struggles against strong edge rushers. Over their last three games, Indiana has allowed pressure on 35.6% of dropbacks, a rate comparable to teams ranked much lower nationally.
Miami brings a formidable pass rush, spearheaded by the dominant duo of Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. Containing both for the entire game is a tall order.
To combat this, Indiana will need to implement strategic help for its tackles, utilizing tight ends and chip blocks from running backs. Equally crucial will be establishing a strong running game to maintain neutral or advantageous down-and-distance situations.
The Hoosiers have excelled in this aspect all season, with only 34.05% of their third downs qualifying as third-and-long (7 yards or more), the second-lowest rate in the nation. This ability to avoid predictable passing situations will be vital in preventing the Hurricanes’ defense from consistently pinning their ears back and disrupting quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who, like most quarterbacks, becomes less effective under pressure.
3. Strike Early and Aggressively
The expanded playoff format transforms the championship into a battle of attrition, and Indiana appears to have a physical advantage over a Hurricanes team that has endured a more grueling path. Miami is grappling with several key defensive injuries, including Akheem Mesidor and defensive tackle Ahmad Moten, with additional defensive backs potentially sidelined. Furthermore, cornerback Xavier Lucas will be absent for the first half due to a targeting ejection in the Fiesta Bowl.
Given these circumstances, expect Indiana’s coaching staff, Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, to unleash an aggressive offensive attack from the outset. With a talented receiving corps featuring Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr., and Charlie Becker, alongside tight end Riley Nowakowski, the Hoosiers will likely exploit Miami’s depleted secondary. Building an early lead would not only solidify Indiana’s confidence but also allow them to maintain their relentless offensive pace, making it even more challenging for the Hurricanes to mount a comeback against a team that has not lost all season.
4. Unleash the Hoosiers’ Understated Pass Rush to Confuse Carson Beck
While much attention is given to Miami’s pass rush, Indiana’s defensive front is equally, if not more, disruptive. The Hoosiers boast a pressure rate of 41.3% (3rd nationally) and a sack rate of 9.0% (9th nationally), statistically outperforming Miami in both categories. Their success stems from a calculated strategy of pre-snap disguise and varied blitz packages designed to confuse opposing quarterbacks.
This approach has flummoxed every signal-caller Indiana has faced, notably Dante Moore, who endured two pick-sixes and four sacks against the Hoosiers this season. Miami’s offensive line is exceptional at protecting Carson Beck, allowing pressure on a mere 17.7% of dropbacks, partly due to their talent and Beck’s quick release (averaging 2.49 seconds).
However, Indiana’s goal will be to create hesitation in Beck’s decision-making by presenting looks he doesn’t anticipate. While Mendoza maintains effectiveness under pressure, Beck’s performance significantly drops.
His sack rate climbs to 22.1% (86th among qualified QBs), and his interception rate spikes to 5.7% (112th). By confusing Beck, Indiana aims to force mistakes and disrupt an otherwise efficient passing game, mirroring the success they’ve had against other top offenses.
5. Exploit Miami’s Tackling Deficiencies
One glaring weakness for the Miami defense is its tackling. With a missed tackle rate of 18.0%, the Hurricanes rank 131st nationally, a stark contrast to Indiana’s impressive 11.1% (6th nationally).
This issue has been evident throughout Miami’s playoff run, with a 19.2% missed tackle rate in the postseason, including 21.4% against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. Ole Miss effectively capitalized on this by attacking the perimeter and creating one-on-one situations, leading to an explosive play rate of 16.67%-the highest Miami has allowed all season.
While Indiana’s offensive approach differs from Ole Miss, particularly with Fernando Mendoza’s ability to push the ball vertically, expect the Hoosiers to incorporate more screen passes to get their playmakers in space. The run game also presents a significant opportunity. Indiana’s explosive rush rate of 11.9% (23rd nationally) and average of 3.54 yards post-contact (23rd nationally) suggest that if their backs can break through the initial line of scrimmage, they could generate numerous explosive runs against Miami’s linebackers and defensive backs, exploiting the Hurricanes’ tackling woes and contributing to a potential championship victory.